If gemini-4-argon-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).

If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.