If the Republican party has exactly 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from United States Congress.

Clarification (11/12/26): Kalshi has filed an amendment to this market's Contract so that it can settle before February 1, 2027 once the election results have decided it. Starting November 26, 2026, Kalshi will check each party's seat count every day at 10:00 AM ET using Associated Press race calls, with a buffer for changes after the election (5 seats off the floor in the House, 1 in the Senate, and 1 seat added to the ceiling). Any market the results have decided will settle that morning; the rest will settle on February 1, 2027 as they do now. If the composition of Congress on February 1, 2027 would have paid an early-settled market the other way, Kalshi will credit $1.00 per contract for positions held on that side at 7:00 AM ET on November 12, 2026. Contracts bought after that time are not covered.

For example, as of November 11, 2026, the Associated Press has declared Democrats the winner of 254 House seats, with 13 seats undeclared. That gives Democrats a floor of 254 (seats declared) and a ceiling of 267 (254 plus the 13 undeclared), or 249 and 268 after the buffers. In KXDHOUSESEATS-27, every range from "Below 210" through "242-245" lies entirely below both values, so those markets would expire and settle No; "246-249" and "Above 249" each contain one of the two values, so they continue to trade and are checked again the next morning.

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.